Suspicion over opinion polls : how reliable are they?

This presidential election is the first presidential election in Egypt with opinion polls. Although the institutes taking care of the polls are supposedly bias-free, the polls do not seem very reliable.

First, almost forty per cent of voters said they were still undecided.

Second, the results of the previous polls, for the Parliament, did not prove accurate at all. In pre parliamentary elections polls, both the Ahram center polls and IDSC polls gave the Salafi Nour Party between 2 and 8.4 percent, and the party won 23 percent in the elections a month later.

Finally, two of the institutions are government-affiliated and the third, Baseera, is run by former IDSC head Maged Osma. Egypt Independent says there have been plenty of conspiracy theories accusing the institutions of fabricating the polls in order to promote their preferred candidates.

Read the original article here.

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