The Muslim Brotherhood candidate was not in the frontrunners according to all the previous polls, but he now is.
“If the non-Islamist vote splits between abstention, Shafiq, Moussa, and the handful of former opposition figures, that base might still be enough to propel Morsi to the run-off. But it would likely not be enough to carry him to the presidential palace,” says Elijah Zarwan.
According to a preliminary Moussa campaign exit poll, Morsy is in the lead near the end of the first day, while Moussa is in second, Abouel Fotouh is third, Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi is fourth, and Shafiq is fifth.
Al Badil (lefty) newspaper thinks the same, Morsi first. But then they see Fotouh, then Moussa, then Shafiq, then finally Sabahi.
The Center of studies for Rights and Citizenship sees Morsi first as well. Then Fotouh, Shafiq, and fourth Moussa, then Sabahi.
A blogger and political analyst, Mahmoud Salem, wrote : “Morsi secured the Muslim Brotherhood votes because he unquestionably represents that bloc. Sabahy, a non-Islamist through and through, got almost all of the ElBaradei and revolutionary votes, and Shafiq has become the great hope of old-regime backers because he has been very vocal about his opposition to the revolution and because he stands as a reminder of the so-called good old days under Mubarak, when everything worked, the streets were secure, and Islamists didn’t dare attempt the shenanigans they want to engage in now. Those respective groups finally found the candidate that they feel comfortable supporting, which leads us to the ultimate question: who, exactly, will vote for Fotouh and Moussa?
Fotouh still has the backing of a few revolutionary supporters, including such famous leftist activists as Wael Khalil and the revolution’s onetime symbol Wael Ghonim. But even they are finding it harder to defend him as he journeys around the country with the Salafis or issues statements about his intentions to shut down alcohol factories.
Liberal votes are divided among those who choose to back Moussa because he is an acceptable compromise, those who will back Shafiq because their friends are doing so, and those who will hold their nose and vote for the Nasserite Sabahi because they believe he won’t compromise on civil liberties, even if it means hurting their economic interests.”