Once again, the polls have failed

Mohammed Morsi, an uncharismatic leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Ahmed Shafiq, a hangover from the old regime, lead the polls.
This comes as a surprise, at least in regard to previous opinion polls, where they were not the frontrunners. But obviously, commentators were waiting for the Egyptian Arab Spring to elect an Islamist as well.

Neither of the supposed frontrunners will apparently make it to the second round of the presidential elections. Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, a former Muslim Brother but who appealed to the liberals as well, or Amr Moussa, a former Arab League chief, were the only two candidates to get to debate each other on television. But they will not be in the run-off. And no poll in the three-week campaign gave Morsi a chance of over 8%.

Many think that Shafiq did better than Moussa because he insisted on security whereas Moussa talked about economic development. For many Egyptian people, the first concern is law and order, whereas it comes from the fact that the police still don’t do much, or from the dozens-year long media discourse, even after Mubarak, about security.


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